BAKERSFIELD, Calif. – When Randy Villegas and David Valadao appeared in a televised debate in early October, it was the first time the two of them appeared together in the course of what’s predicted to be a tight race for House District 22.
Villegas, a progressive Democrat, quickly hit at Valadao for his vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year – which cut about $1 trillion from Medicaid and established new work requirements in order to qualify. Valadao, the Republican incumbent, shot back by naming his experience in Congress and criticizing Villegas’ record as a school board member in the Visalia Unified School District.
Less than a month is left before voters head to the polls on Nov. 3, and this race is one of the most closely watched in the country.
Not only because Democrats know they have a voter advantage in the district. In the 2024 general election, Democrats held a 13-percentage-point lead ahead of Republicans registered to vote in District 22.
But also because Democrats managed to oust Valadao once before when he lost to T.J. Cox in 2018.
Last year, California also redrew the congressional district to favor Democrats even more heavily. Proposition 50 widened the political gap: Democrats now make up 42% of registered voters, compared to 26% Republicans.
And this year, nationally, many signs have emerged about a potential blue wave in November.
Given all that, the current polls place Villegas as the slight favorite to win the seat. He stands about four to five points ahead of Valadao, depending on the poll. But conventional wisdom would say that it’s not over until it’s over.
‘House District 22 really matters’
In late September, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson stumped for Valadao and told voters that Valadao has not only defied history in past elections – but that the seat was one Republicans need to hold. He was in the middle of a 30-day tour of swing districts across the country.
“There's not a stop that I will make that is more important than the district we're standing in right now,” Johnson said. “California [House District] 22 really matters."
Attendees at a fundraiser paid $1,000 to $1,250 for a seat. A post-fundraiser rally was free but not open to the general public. Around 125 people showed up.
There, Johnson warned about the dangers of a “blue wave.” Valadao gave only brief remarks, but Johnson praised him as a necessary voice in Congress.
“David Valadao is like the grown-up in the room. He's like the problem-solving, coalition-building, servant-hearted leader that represents you so well,” Johnson said. “He works around the clock for the people of the Central Valley.”
Johnson told the crowd Valadao “is going to win this race.”
Days later, similar words rang out at a rally for the Democrat in the race.
This time, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders joined Villegas for a rally at Bakersfield High School.
Sanders, like Johnson, had warnings of his own, but this time about artificial intelligence, video surveillance, wars and billionaires.
“What you are seeing is that people are now supporting progressive candidates who are prepared to stand with the working class and take on the oligarchs,” Sanders said.
The rally also featured Washington Democratic Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal and Mendota’s Republican Mayor Victor Martinez. This was the second time Sanders brought his anti-oligarchy to Bakersfield.
Healthcare and immigration dominate the race
The redrawn House District 22 covers parts of Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera and Tulare counties.
Valadao has won six out of the last seven elections. He first held the seat in 2012 and was re-elected in 2020 after Cox unseated him for one term. Years later, Cox was convicted of wire fraud and sentenced to a year in prison.
Villegas is an educator who grew up in Bakersfield and is the son of Latino immigrants. He’s a relative political newcomer whose only elected position has been trustee of the Visalia Unified School District for four years.
And although he’s often referred to as progressive, he actually prefers the term “populist.”
At the TV debate hosted by KGET, Villegas told viewers Valadao “betrayed the Central Valley” on healthcare. That’s one of the key campaign issues.
“He publicly promised that he would not cut Medicaid. And when push came to shove, he was the deciding vote on this big ‘B.S.’ bill that is going to rip away health care from Valley families to give $1.1 trillion in tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans in this country,” Villegas said.
Valadao defended his vote, noting that added work requirements to receive Medicaid are reasonable.
“People who have the ability to work have the ability to either volunteer in their community, go to school or get a job and they can continue to get their benefits,” Valadao said. “We need people to actually put in and make a fair effort to try to cover their expenses and be a part of their community. This is not an unreasonable ask.”
Villegas didn’t present many specifics on his plan for universal health care when asked by moderators.
Immigration enforcement also dominated the discussion. At the debate, details were still emerging about a surprise raid in the San Joaquin Valley by ICE agents. In the days since, dozens, possibly hundreds, have been detained across the Valley in an operation that was expected to last 45 days.
Villegas and Valadao had some common positions on the issue. The two agreed those without legal status and with criminal records should not be allowed in the country.
But though they each denounced excessive force being used to detain people, Valadao said he approved of some of their operations.
“Am I happy with the way that they've done everything? No,” Valadao said. “But have they been able to do some of the things that I think are important? Securing our border is important. Buying the technology they need to secure our border plays a major role in this.”
The two candidates also sparred over the war in Iran, which has led to a spike in gas prices. Both agreed they support suspending the federal gas tax.
Villegas interrupted Valadao several times to ask him why he kept supporting the war. Valadao insisted it would be over soon.
‘It’s time to bring it back home’
Although Valadao received more votes than Villegas in the June primary, there’s no guarantee he’d hold onto that lead in the general election. At that time, two Democrats were challenging Valadao, and split the vote.
August polling from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found that, statewide, 40% of registered voters say they would be more inclined to back a candidate who is a progressive, while 29% would be less inclined. Another 20% say it would not make much difference and 11% have no opinion.
Campaign finance data also tells a story. Valadao has held a fundraising lead the entire race, having raised $4.9 million as of June compared to Villegas’s $2.6 million.
Voters across the Valley told KVPR they are feeling fatigue and dissatisfaction with high cost of goods, and national polls suggest rural Republican voters, in particular, are frustrated with the Trump administration and the rising cost of living.
And the healthcare question can’t seem to go away. It’s what cost Valadao the seat to a Democrat in 2018.
According to Kaiser Family Foundation data, 62% of residents in the current district were enrolled in Medicaid – the largest enrollment in the safety net program of any Republican-held congressional district in the entire country.
“Right now there is a larger possibility that the district could flip to Democrat from being Republican,” California State University, Bakersfield, Political Science Professor Ivy Cargile told KVPR.
But there’s a caveat – as expected in such a tight race.
“It could swing either Democrat or it could swing Republican based on your independent voters or your no party preference voters… because of the new makeup of that district,” Cargile said.
Most of the people who spoke to KVPR at the Valadao and Johnson rally said they were not constituents of House District 22 but primarily came out to hear from Johnson.
They also said they were worried about affordability, especially the price of gas and groceries.
Bill Lever, a Republican, lives in Valadao’s district.
“Mike [Johnson] brings to light that we have 22 important races, and that David [Valadao] is one of those important races,” Lever said. ”They'll be the swing ones between the Congress being Republican or being Democrat.”
When asked about the relatively low turnout at the rally, Lever said it wasn't meant to draw a massive crowd.
“It was meant for the specific people that would move this race forward. So that's who was invited today,” he said.
Meanwhile, a large portion of those who attended the Villegas and Sanders rally were from local unions and farmworkers. Some were attracted to the event because of Sanders’ progressive message.
Sara Garcia, a college student who lives in the district, said she wants to vote for “change” in Bakersfield.
“I'm concerned with the price of living in Bakersfield, the price of living in California overall,” Garcia said. “I'm concerned with the wars that we're currently funding, whether that be devastating in Palestine or funding the war in Iran. It's really important that it's time to look at ourselves and see what we can fix at home first, and then go from there.”
Garcia said she has not been affected by the Medicaid cuts brought by the One Big Beautiful Bill, but she has family and friends who were – and she wants to use her vote to speak for them.
“I just feel like Valadao has completely checked out of what constituents in Bakersfield need,” Garcia said. “I think Villegas, at least, says that he wants to give back to our community, and I really think we need to see that. We're so forgotten most of the time, and so I feel like it's time to bring it back home.”
