A new report by California’s High-Speed Rail Authority suggests the state could save billions of dollars by resequencing the planned Bakersfield-to-Merced segment of the bullet train.
That could include eliminating Merced as an initial operating stop on the bullet train route, despite longstanding plans going back more than a decade to build a station in the city’s downtown as part of the first segment.
Some of the alternative route options included in the report have the train traveling instead to Gilroy from Bakersfield or Palmdale, in order to more directly connect with the electrified Caltrain commuter-rail line that serves the San Francisco Peninsula.
The 96-page report is part of what the High-Speed Rail Authority is calling a “holistic reassessment” of the project, including cost estimates, ridership projections and overall delivery timeline.
Envisioned as a rail line connecting San Francisco to Los Angeles, work is currently taking place on the first segment of the route, which would run 171 miles from Bakersfield in the south to Merced in the north. The route is slated to be operational by 2032.
Construction so far has been limited to three construction contracts running from just north of Madera to the Kern County community of Shafter – a span of 119 miles.
“The Authority is statutorily obligated to prioritize delivery of the Merced-Bakersfield segment and plans to do so unless otherwise directed by the Legislature,” the report says.
“Nonetheless, completing the Gilroy-Palmdale segment would provide statewide rail service to a majority of Californians and promises the highest return on investment for the state; and completing the Gilroy – Bakersfield scenario is a cost-effective way to achieve profitable commercial operations at the earliest possible opportunity with less additional funding needed.”
Alternative routes could change plans for Merced
The report includes a 40-year cost-benefit analysis looking at the profits the Merced-Bakersfield route would bring, based on passenger ridership and other projections.
According to the report, operation of the Merced-Bakersfield route would result in a net loss of $3.8 billion over a period of 40 years.
The buildout cost for the Merced-Bakersfield segment is $36.75 billion, with $8.59 billion still needed.
The report includes four alternative buildout scenarios to the Merced-Bakersfield route. While the Merced-Bakersfield route shows an operating loss over 40 years, according to the report, the alternative routes show a profit:
Bakersfield to Gilroy
This route would span from Bakersfield in the south to Gilroy in the north. The train would travel west to Gilroy from Madera.
Passengers would be able to reach San Jose and San Francisco via connecting Caltrain service at the Gilroy station. Passengers from Merced would have to travel to a high-speed rail station in Madera via the Amtrak San Joaquins. According to the report, the Bakersfield-to-Gilroy route would cost $54.38 billion, of which $26.22 billion in funding is still needed.
Separate from the construction costs, the report says the segment would bring in an estimated $47.5 billion net profit in operations over a period of 40 years.
Palmdale to Gilroy
This route would have the Southern California community of Palmdale as the southern-most tip of the high-speed rail route, traveling north to Madera, and then heading west to Gilroy. The Palmdale station would have connections to Los Angeles via Metrolink trains. Passengers from Merced would have to travel to the Madera High-Speed Rail station via the Amtrak San Joaquins.The Palmdale to Gilroy route would cost $87.12 billion, with $58.96 billion in funding needed.
Separate from the construction costs, the segment would bring in an estimated $98.1 billion in net profits in operations over 40 years.
- Merced extensions – The plan also includes alternatives that would build an extension for the above routes that would still travel to Gilroy, while still including a high speed rail station in Merced.
Merced officials express concern
It’s still unknown whether the proposed route alternatives will actually move forward.
Micah Flores, a spokesperson for the High-Speed Rail Authority, said any changes to the initial Bakersfield to Merced segment would require approval by the Legislature.
Flores told The Merced Focus in an email the High Speed Rail Authority is committed to building the Merced to Bakersfield segment, which is required under state law.
“We’re also providing options to the legislature and administration to consider going forward and based on funding levels and direction from the state, the Authority will deliver project segments accordingly,” Flores said.
Merced Mayor Matthew Serratto said he hadn’t read the High Speed Rail Authority report, but said he’s disappointed alternative routes that do not include Merced in the initial segment may be considered.
Serratto and others have said the proposed high-speed rail station would be an economic catalyst for downtown Merced and the region, bringing millions of dollars in investment and jobs. Plus, the planned ACE Train expansion to Merced County from San Joaquin County is happening in part to transfer passengers to the high speed rail station.
The Merced station would be located in the section of downtown bordered by 15th and 16th streets, and O and R Streets. Serratto said the city recently accepted a $500,000 grant to assist with planning for the station.
“It’s been a long road. It’s been a lot of work, a lot of planning. You have businesses in the right of way and also in the station area who have already made contingency plans if they get bought out. We are currently in negotiations with High-Speed Rail for a number of our properties,” Serratto said.
“There is just a ton of work and a ton of people who have relied on this one way or another – made plans to either relocate their businesses. We have plans we’re considering about whether to relocate the Boys and Girls Club and the Senior Center. There is just a lot going on here.”
Serratto noted the importance of having a high-speed rail station in the city, given the growth of the UC Merced campus, not to mention that Merced has consistently been named among the fastest-growing cities in California.
“It would transform our community,” Serratto said. “It really could add a lot of fuel to the growth we’ve been experiencing.”
Merced City Councilmember Shane Smith said an alternative route that doesn’t include Merced would ultimately make it more difficult for the High-Speed Rail Authority to claim success.
“I think if the authority board really thinks about it, my view is they would stay focused on the goal they already have and start with an initial operating segment that connects the backbone of the Valley and includes the new commercial center of the Valley, which is Merced.”Shane Smith, Merced city councilmember
Smith said changing the route from Bakersfield to Merced and instead going from Bakersfield to Madera and then Gilroy, for example, would amount to the High-Speed Rail Authority “changing the goal post” on themselves.
“Forcing themselves to generate a new route, punch through Pacheco Pass, that’s going to be significantly more expensive to get to that milestone,” Smith said.
“I think if the authority board really thinks about it, my view is they would stay focused on the goal they already have and start with an initial operating segment that connects the backbone of the Valley and includes the new commercial center of the Valley, which is Merced.”
Congressman Adam Gray, D-Merced, told The Merced Focus that Proposition 1A, which was passed by California voters in 2008, required a station to be built in Merced.
Gray has been a backer of high speed rail, including a Merced station as part of the first segment, since his prior time serving in the state Assembly.
“Any rail route that bypasses Merced is not only a broken promise to our Valley community, but a stupid economic choice,” Gray said in a statement to The Focus.
“The problem with our high speed rail project has been delays due to red tape and cost overruns. The state should fix those issues and stop trying to come up with new routes every year.”
Trump administration seeks to halt project
Although Tuesday’s report raises questions about which direction legislators will ultimately take on the direction of high speed rail, an even bigger issue is President Donald Trump’s efforts to put the kibosh on the entire project.
Last month the Trump administration terminated $4 billion in federal grants for the rail project. In response, the High-Speed Rail Authority sued the federal government. The courts have yet to decide the fate of those federal funds.
California voters approved a $9.9 billion bond measure in 2008 for the project. Since then, it has been mired by numerous delays and skyrocketing costs.
The Fresno Bee in January reported the initial 2008 projection of $33 billion to build the 520-mile route from San Francisco to Los Angeles has risen to $128 billion.
The Bee also reported the first segment of high-speed rail from Merced to Bakersfield will launch no earlier than 2030 and perhaps as late as 2033.