RIVERDALE, Calif. – Earlier this spring, Joe Coelho’s pistachio orchard in Fresno County seemed to be headed for a strong season.
Then came an unexpected stretch of heat.
It “took place right in the middle of bloom,” Coelho said.
Temperatures rose into the 90s at one of the critical points of the pistachio blooming process. Recently, as Coelho walked through rows of pistachio trees, he was in a waiting period to see how much of the crop would actually fully develop this year.
He carefully examined pistachio shells, looking for “a blank,” which is a shell without a pistachio kernel inside – a sign of the climate’s toll on a sensitive crop. He found some.
The uncertainty over the climate’s impact comes as the global pistachio demand continues to grow. This boom is fueled by viral food trends like Dubai-style chocolate and pistachio-filled desserts that fill internet algorithms.
Scott Fryer, vice president of global marketing for American Pistachio Growers, said that in 2024, there were about 54 products on grocery store shelves across the U.S. that mentioned “Dubai-style chocolate.” In 2025, that number nearly tripled.
The trend has added to demand that was already growing before this year’s pistachio season.
Fryer said it could turn out that the 2026 harvest is so low that it can’t meet demand.
And much of the pressure of such demand would be on California, which produces 99% of U.S. pistachios, according to Gurreet Brar, an associate professor of pomology at Fresno State who focuses on pistachio physiology and horticulture.
“Pistachio is a really economically important crop in California,” Brar said.
On a global scale, California is responsible for roughly 40 to 45% of the total pistachio supply.
But pistachio farmers don’t seem to be in a position to increase production to meet a growing demand. Pistachio trees, like many others, take years to produce enough nuts for a typical commercial harvest. This means that each orchard is a long-term investment with no guarantee that it will offer the crop that growers – and consumers – expect each season.
But when they do have a normal blooming season, pistachios are a durable crop.
"Pistachios are usually taken as a much more resilient crop than almonds or other crops grown in the Valley,” Brar said. “They're more drought-tolerant, they're more salt-tolerant, and we have adapted pistachios to California conditions really well."
For farmers like Coelho, a small harvest translates to a significant drop in revenue.
He estimates that it costs roughly $4,000 per acre each year to farm a pistachio orchard. He needs to produce about 1,400 pounds of pistachios per acre at an average price to break even.
“You have to be really thoughtful about your profitability when you’re right on the margin of potentially making money,” Coelho said.
Major losses aren’t typical for a tree nut like pistachios. And farmers are taking lessons from the at-times volatile almond market to make sure it stays that way.
Growers are trying to balance producing enough supply of pistachios to support the demand without over-planting the crop either.
There are still ways to go to know how the pistachio crop will fare this year, but Coelho is already looking past this year’s challenges and looking ahead at the next season.
“If all the stars align next year, well, then these things will have stored up a lot of energy, and they should produce a record crop next year,” Coelho said.
