MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
For more on this, we've called Ebtesam Al-Ketbi. She is president of the Emirates Policy Center. That's an independent think tank based in the United Arab Emirates that focuses on geopolitical developments in the Persian Gulf. Welcome. Thank you for joining us.
EBTESAM AL-KETBI: Thank you for having me.
MARTIN: As we just heard from our correspondent Aya Batrawy, the UAE officially cut off all trade and financial transactions with Iran last week. As briefly as you can, can you give us a sense of why?
AL-KETBI: Well, the UAE cut its financial and commercial relations with Iran for a combination of security, strategic and financial reasons. It would be too narrow to interpret the decision simply as retaliation for the two Iranian ballistic missiles detected on the 18th of August. Although that incident clearly accelerate that politically, reinforced the move. The UAE said the missile had been launched from Iran towards maritime traffic, with one falling inside Emirate territorial wars. But more fundamentally, Abu Dhabi appears to have concluded that economic relationship with Iran had become a strategic vulnerability. Iranian attacks on UAE-linked shipping, persistent pressure around Hormuz and Tehran willingness to use maritime security as leverage created a situation in which extensive economic ties were increasingly difficult to separate from national security considerations.
MARTIN: Do you expect other countries to follow the UAE or in some way follow the U.S. call to punish Iran?
AL-KETBI: Well, look, from my point of view, I think this sanctions is not only purely economy. It is political and strategic to touch the justification of Iranian not to open the Hormuz - OK? - and not to control the strait system. Now, who will follow? Now we're talking about many. UAE has that big relation. Of course, the others under the severe sanctions, they will follow, definitely. Now, if we are talking about others like Chinese, the Chinese foreign ministry said they will today, as Reuters news, that they will continue their relations with Iran. But if you are talking about the impact of that on the Gulf, this will therefore not be purely economic. It will unfold across three interconnected dimensions, financial, commercial and security-related. So, for sure, the other Gulfs will follow UAE.
MARTIN: Iran has said that Iran will consider any countries that partner in this campaign as enemies. Do you think that that's true and that further retaliation directed at the UAE and others will follow?
AL-KETBI: I think this is the last out Iran will have. And, yes, that - sanctions will trigger a military action from Iran. But as I'm following also Iran, they are still - what they said about the Pakistani mediation, they are still looking to be back to the same negotiation that has been stopped before. So I think this is their last. And we have to understand there is a conflict between the politician and the IRGC.
MARTIN: All right, we have to leave it there for now. Thank you so much. That's Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center. Thank you so much for sharing these insights with us.
AL-KETBI: Thank you.
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