FRESNO, Calif. – Although California overwhelmingly voted for Vice President Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s presidential election, ballots from the San Joaquin Valley tell a different story.
As of Wednesday afternoon, with most California precincts at least partially counted, Harris was leading in California with 57% of votes. Former President Donald Trump had received 40%. But in the seven counties of the southern San Joaquin Valley, that margin was almost exactly flipped: Trump was leading 57%-40%.
The national election results show a much narrower margin: Trump was leading 51%-47%.
In the Valley, Harris saw the greatest support in Merced County, with 45% of ballots cast for her. The biggest swing for Trump was in Kings County, where he earned 62% of the vote.
Harris wasn’t winning in any Valley county, despite the fact that Democrats lead voter registrations in both Merced and Fresno counties.
In fact, if Trump maintains his lead in Fresno County, it would be the first time that a Republican carried the county since 2004, when George W. Bush triumphed in the electoral college despite Senator John Kerry winning the popular vote.
Going into the election, voter preferences throughout the Valley for the two major parties were neck and neck. Democrats and Republicans both claimed just over 35% of registered voters, while 21% had registered as No Party Preference.
But those party affiliations are merely a blueprint – not a predictor – for the elections. Final vote tallies depend not just on how third-party voters cast their ballots on election day, but also on how many voters show up in the first place.
In general, voter turnout locally appears to have been relatively low. Across the Valley, roughly 39% of registered voters cast ballots on Tuesday. Although that’s higher than the turnout at the primary election in March, the 2022 general election by comparison saw 45% of registered voters fill out their ballots, and the 2020 general election energized a whopping 75% of the Valley’s registered voters.
Some ballots still remain unprocessed a day after the election. Although not all counties make this data available on their websites, Fresno County, for instance, has yet to process nearly 100,000 ballots. That’s nearly a fifth of all registered voters in the county.
California’s Secretary of State’s office has until Dec. 13 to process all ballots and certify all election results.
